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Editor --- Jag Mohan
Thaken
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Article
for Edit/opinion page
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HaryanaElection: Will BJP succeed to sail through the turbulent waters riding on OBC
card?
In order
to neutralize the anti-incumbency wave that arose due to the issues of ‘farmer-soldier-wrestler’
against the BJP government, the BJP after keeping Prime Minister Modi's trusted
confidant Manohar Lal Khattar on the Chief Minister's throne for about nine and
a half years, brought Nayab Singh Saini, who belongs to the backward caste, to
power only six months before the elections so that the Other Backward Class (OBC)
vote bank could be unilaterally cashed in favour of the BJP.
With this
hope, the BJP had also declared before the Haryana Assembly elections that even
after the elections, Nayab Singh Saini would again be the Chief Minister in
their government.
To woo
the OBC votes en masse under the chief ministership of Nayab Singh Saini, BJP
fielded 21 OBC candidates out of total 90, but adopting the same tactics, to
snatch its share of OBC votes from BJP’s clutches, Congress also gave 20 seats
to OBC category, which is now barricading the BJP’s efforts.
BJP
thought that by making Saini the Chief Minister, BJP will get OBC vote bank in
bulk, but BJP probably failed to assess that Saini is not being considered as
the face of OBC, but he is being considered as Khattar's face mask. Why would
the largest OBC section, Ahir (Yadav) caste, be happy with Saini being
promoted? The vote bank of Ahirs (Yadavs) has its influence in about one and a
half dozen assembly constituencies and can turn anyone's victory into defeat.
The Yadav vote bank has understood that no matter how much Rao Indrajit Singh
claims to bring power in South Haryana, the BJP will never let Rao's plans come
true. Therefore, this time the Yadavs seem to have made anti-BJP mood.
Before
the elections, Union Minister Rao Indrajit Singh had
been expressing anger on almost every platform that this time he will bring the
helm of Haryana to South Haryana. Without
naming anyone, he has repeatedly mentioned that people junior to him are being
given cabinet rank posts in the Union Cabinet, whereas he has not been able to
rise beyond the post of Minister of State for the last 15 years. Rao's
supporters are also angry with this helplessness of Rao Indrajit Singh and due
to this, BJP is also afraid of losing votes in Ahirwal. To calm down the anger
of Rao and his supporters, Rao's daughter Aarti Rao, who was denied party
ticket in 2019, this time has been made
a candidate in the assembly elections, but how much this lollipop will be able
to pacify the resentment, only the election results will tell.
BJP’s OBC
card theory got another jolt when the former minister and president of BJP’s
Haryana OBC Morcha, Karan Dev Kamboj, who is upset at not getting a ticket in
the assembly elections, assessing the declining position of the BJP, left all
types of BJP membership including the OBC Morcha presidentship and joined the
Congress alleging that the saffron party considers the backward community as a
mere vote bank and is not ready to give them rights.
Seeing
anger of farmers against the party and on not getting the ticket, BJP’s Haryana
Kisan Morcha president and former MLA Sukhvinder Mandhi has also bade good bye
to the party and joined the Congress.
Smelling
the weak position of the party and decreasing gravitational force of the top
leadership, especially PM Modi and Amit Shah during the current Lok Sabha
elections, wherein BJP lost its 50 percent seats in 2024 in comparison to 2019
in Haryana, party’s many stalwarts have also left the party.
To
mention a few more; India’s richest woman, Jindal group chairperson, BJP leader
Savitri Jindal has joined the electoral fray and filed papers as an independent
candidate after she was denied the ticket by the BJP. A former minister and
two-time MLA, she put her foot down to take the field opposite BJP candidate
Kamal Gupta from Hisar assembly constituency, despite the fact that her son
Naveen Jindal is a BJP MP from Kurukshetra.
Former
power minister, and a candidate of BJP in just held Lok Sabha election from
Hisar, Ranjeet Singh Chautala has also left the BJP and is fighting assembly
election against the BJP candidate as an independent.
What’s on
ground and why it’s so?
In the
present scenario, the BJP seems to lose the ground badly. Political analysts suggest that BJP hardly
will cross the 25 mark and it will remain between 20-25 out of 90 seats,
whereas its main opponent Congress playing on high pitch seems to get a major
chunk and may get its share somewhat between 55—60, leaving behind a scope of
winning 5 to 10 seats for others, including independents. Former Deputy Prime
Minister, late Chaudhary Devilal’s clan may suffer the most.
The
ground report shows that the atrocities against the agitating farmers, tyranny over
women wrestlers, squeezing the scope and employment opportunities for the youth
willing to serve the Indian Military by enforcing Agniveer scheme; are some
major reasons for the resentment in Haryana’s voters and thin position of the
BJP. However, harassing the people
through Property ID, Family ID, different types of portals and mockery with
unemployed youth allowing uncontrolled frequent paper leaks are also the
factors of creating anti- incumbency wave.
Will
Saini get the CM throne again, if BJP comes to power?
Union
Home Minister, Amit Shah, while addressing a worker meeting on June 29 at
Panchkula, Haryana declared that even after the elections, Nayab Singh Saini
would again be the Chief Minister in BJP government. Shah said, “BJP will fight
the next assembly elections under the leadership of Saini, who will also be the
next chief minister.”
Commenting
over the statement of Shah, an Unemployed youth says, “Na Nau Mann Tel Hoga, Na
Radha Nachegi (If sky falls, we shall catch the larks). He adds – Saini is being
presented as the second Channi, just to woo the OBC votes, to whom Congress had
floated as next CM of Punjab to fetch the Dalit votes in assembly election of 2022
in the state.
Now, from
the claims of the state level leaders of the BJP and the promise of Amit Shah
in Behal, Bhiwani rally held on 17 September in favour of state finance
minister J P Dalal from Loharu constituency, it seems that even if the BJP
government is formed, then also the Chief Minister could be someone else
instead of Saini.
Union
Minister Rao Indrajit Singh had been expressing his desire to become the Chief
Minister indirectly almost on every
platform that this time he will bring the helm of Haryana to South Haryana.
Now the former Haryana Home Minister Anil Vij
too has staked his claim to the CM chair. On September 15,2024, he said, “I am
the senior most MLA of BJP in Haryana. I have contested elections for 6 times.
On the demand of people, I will claim for the designation of CM on the basis of
my seniority this time. However, it is in the hands of high command whether
they will make me CM or not. If they make me the CM I will change the picture
of Haryana."
BJP
candidate from Loharu constituency, the finance minister in the present
government, J P Dalal has also started to present himself as the sure shot
future Chief Minister of Haryana in his speeches after the Behal rally of Amit
Shah on September 17, in which shah had exhorted the people of Loharu to elect
him the MLA and the party will make him a ‘Bada Aadmi’. (Tum Dalal ko MLA Bana
Do, Party Ise Bada Aadami Bana Degi.) “You make him MLA; Party will make him a
big person.”
Some
Political Analysts think that BJP top leadership has smelt the essence of the
ground and they have concluded that the Nayab Singh Saini is not being taken as
the leader of entire OBC category and his name can only woo the Saini voters
upto some extent, so the party has started to lure the different segments of
the society by projecting the candidates
of other castes also as Chief Minister and it seems that the party itself has allowed
to pose them as potential CM, otherwise, the leaders of Dalal level, only one
time MLA, can never claim to become the
Chief Minister in BJP rule, wherein six times MLA and Home Minister in previous
Khattar government, Anil Vij and Three times MLA , Six times Member of
Parliament and Minister of State in the central ministry for more than last 15 years, Rao Inderjeet Singh have even
not been considered for the waiting list for the Chief Ministership.
Anyway,
according to Galib – ‘Humko Maloom Hai
Jannat Ki Hakiqat , Lekin Dil Bahlaane Ko
Galib Khayal Achchha Hai.’ (I know the reality of heaven; but this
thought is good to entertain the heart.)-- GROUND POST
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